(…This item was written in 2006 and contains a laundry list of geopolitical problems which were current at that time. I kind of marvel [although, honestly, I am not surprised], however, how current they still are, as if time has been standing still all this time… This is probably the main reason why I have decided to deliver it essentially in its 2006 form, both as a historical curiosity and as a compelling testimony to the fact that five years have not produced much of a difference.)
Global Financial, And Other Insecurities:
Soon after President Bush took his famous look into Mr. Putin’s soul, the Russian President paid a visit to the Old Country, where, during a press conference, he complained, with mock indignation, that Europe must stop paying for Russian oil in U.S. currency, and switch to Euros. His devious comment did not result in an immediate fall of the petrodollar, but, in my judgment, ushered in a new era of dangerous instability for the world’s staple currency. Considering the huge deficits America has been running and accumulating during the last few years, shored up, to a large extent, by the power of the petrodollar, this country may be soon, if not already, finding herself at the mercy of some rather unsympathetic strangers--- with a trillion-dollar-plus (today, it may be as high as three trillion, and, I suspect, tomorrow it will be four) claim against her. Even if the Europeans keep coming to the U.S. dollar’s rescue again and again, to forestall a world financial crisis, America and the West are still facing the problem of Global Financial Insecurity, in which the Russians are fairly successfully playing the mischief-makers, recently suggesting, for instance, that the petroleum and gas pricings might well switch to the Russian Ruble, or the Chinese Yuan, or both.
Russia’s position on her WTO entry is also unquestionably duplicitous. A strong argument is being made in Moscow that Russia is much better off outside the WTO with all its restrictions, whereas her advantages can always be obtained from separate bilateral or multilateral agreements, which Russia can now negotiate from a position of strength. It is therefore a big mistake for Washington to see its consent to Russia’s WTO entry as a humongous favor, on America’s part, that the Russians somehow have to deserve. In reality it would be to Washington’s advantage to have the Russians covered by the WTO agreement, rather than allowing them to play the role of spoilers, with relative impunity, thus contributing to global instability in the crucial area of international trade. As a result of Washington’s probably deliberate misreading of Moscow’s intentions, it is giving Russia an excuse to stay out of the WTO, and an advantageous “victim status,” into the bargain. (2011 update on this: I understand that the seemingly perennial impasse on the issue of Russia’s acceptance into the WTO has moved a few inches, but there are a few hurdles still left: one is the reluctance of the U.S. Senate to see Russia in the WTO, and another one is the strong possibility of non-ratification by the Russian Duma, if all other hurdles fail to stop the process. I somehow bet on this matter remaining unresolved at the end of 2012, and even farther than that, by the end of this decade.)
Prerequisites of Global Security:
Repeating the last pronouncement of my Cat Allegory, “Global Security requires that we understand the tiger inside us, and do not misunderstand him inside others.” Here outlined, are the two key prerequisites of the condition we call Global Security.
Teipse nosce. Does America know who she is and what she is doing? What is her national interest if she still has one? Let us take a simple question: Why did America invade Iraq?-- Was it faulty intelligence? Saddam being an obnoxious thug? To spread democracy? To help Israel? Perhaps to build a permanent military base in the Middle East? To pump their oil? To create a puppet government? I have recently heard Dr. Michael Evans, on Chris Matthews’ Hardball, on MSNBC. (Remember that this was written in 2006!) He claims to represent 40 million Evangelical Christians in this country. He is not bothered by the failure to find WMD in Iraq or to tie Saddam to Bin Laden. In his own words, he does not “give a bleep about Iraqi Democracy.” He is in Iraq to stay, to build military bases, and to project American power across the Middle East for the direct benefit of Israel… So, please, will the real reason of America’s Iraq adventure stand up! Until it does, America’s basic competence to address the subject of Global Security will be severely impaired.
Understanding others. Several years ago, on the McLaughlin Group, Mort Zuckerman, the well-known media mogul (US News & World Report being among his more conspicuous assets), and a political pundit, made a comment which made me jump up and cry out in helpless frustration. He confidently declared that Mr. Khodorkovsky, Russia’s “Oil Czar” at the time, was by far more powerful in Russia than… President Putin. A billionaire vs. some fellow living on a measly salary? No contest!!!
There is a profound Russian poem, by Alexander Sergeevich Pushkin, which must be memorized by anyone who ever opens his mouth to talk about Russia:
Its Practicality.
The two prerequisites above: teipse nosce and understand others, must not be taken as a light banter on my part. They go to the heart of the matter. America has no power to force the world into a good behavior. The biggest fellow in the class, in order to be liked, must show some real respect to the others, otherwise, he will be called a bully, and by the law known as the Balance of Power, they will all gang up on him whether he is right or wrong. To avoid the image of a bully, they need to be shown some humility! Humility is the sugar coating on the bitter pill of America’s strength, if America wants the world to swallow it. Arrogance is the self-defense of the weak, it is unbecoming a great nation…
“...Humility, arrogance? Give us a break! What about the real issues: arms control, non-proliferation, etc.?”
…Political science is notorious for making large marble pedestals for monuments made of dust…
Global security is not some general theory suspended in a vacuum. It is a game, where the rules are vague and cannot be set by a single player. In the absence of clear rules, the importance of each individual player becomes the main criterion. Therefore, I stand by my two principal prerequisites. And first, before anything else, America must take a long hard look at herself.
Next, she must look around, assessing the real strengths and the real weaknesses of the others. I suggest to start with a radical reexamination of Mr. Putin’s Russia. Here is certainly number one concern, not the man, but the whole rejuvenated, reinvigorated nation. You want arms control? Say “Russia”! Non-proliferation? Say “Russia”!
China. America has a good point, being apprehensive about China. But China has some serious limitations and natural weaknesses. What makes China truly formidable is her close alliance with Russia, an unbeatable combination. As you see, the key, again, is Russia!
Terrorism. This is a disaster. America has not exactly created the monster, but she has built it up. To fight terrorism, she must first deflate it. She should be fighting specific enemies, not a formless specter. Terrorism, like crime, is invincible, unless this term is put into a proper perspective.
The Middle East. If America really wishes to help her friend Israel, she must insert herself into the picture, but only as an honest broker. Being “a city on a hill, the eyes of the world upon us,” let her not abandon that high ground. After all, her friends will be better served with her as a referee than as a player on their side.
As for the conflict itself, I am skeptical about “a permanent solution.” When vital interests of the opposing parties are clashing, we can either try to downgrade one or both of them to non-vital, which I do not see in the cards, or seek a remission, trying to prolong it for as long as possible, until, hopefully, the high tide of the parties’ mutual hatred, causing their incompatibility, subsides to a treatable level… Sadly, the current ongoing tragedy in Lebanon (written in 2006!) has sent the Middle East “Peace Process” back to the Stone Age, while raising serious concern about the future of Israel itself…
North Korea. Doesn’t America have any experts at all?! Can someone, at last, tell the truth to the public and to her misguided politicians: Forget China, it’s Russia, stupid! A million North Koreans are now financing the rogue state’s regime by serving as migrant workers in Russia’s Far East. If anybody has a say there, it is Mr. Putin: he and Mr. Kim have by now looked into each other’s soul so many times, it’s probably time to send Mr. Kim’s special train to a shop for major maintenance. The bottom line: The only thing America can do about North Korea, unless she doesn’t want to do anything, is to make Russia responsible for her client: the Russians will accept this challenge, and many other challenges too as long as America is ready to restore to them the clout of a global power she had rushed to take away from them a generation ago, without a good cause.
Iran. Once again, it’s Russia, stupid! With the Russians firmly behind them, Teheran relishes standing up to the American Colossus. However, Persia is very different from North Korea. It possesses a great power syndrome. It means, the Iranians are not exactly happy with putting all their eggs in one basket. They are eager to play both sides. Besides, they owe America some serious gratitude for having bumped off their enemy number 1, Saddam, and destroyed the Sunni power in Iraq. Now America has a terrific opportunity here to undo some damage from the fall of the Shah, if she is smart and liberates herself from her ideological jail, to breathe again the free air of American interest. The bottom line here is that the lingering problems of Iran’s nuclear program and its general animosity toward the United States have a chance of being somewhat alleviated (but they will hardly go away), through a direct and reasonably respectful communication between America and Iran, as otherwise, it will be all up to Russia.
Old Europe --- New Europe. America needs to be realistic about Europe. Her old friends may not seem too happy with her these days, but they have common blood running in their social veins, and even these angry days blood is still thicker than water. These are not the coolest of days, so, let us not judge an old family by the bitterness of its latest quarrel, nor a new friendship by the sweetness of our victory over a former suitor. Squeezed between “Old Europe” and the Russian Colossus, Eastern Europe will surely have to make certain neighborly adjustments, in the long run, leaving America eventually in the role of an outsider… I would not count too much on those ‘forward bases’ either. The Poles and the Czechs are yet to learn the exact meaning of Zero Option, especially now that some top Russian Generals are publicly threatening to turn their lovely landscapes into a desert…
Post-Soviet Space. One of the most unfortunate of recent American illusions… Having become at odds with the concept of her own interest, America is blissfully ignoring the reality of Russia’s vital interest. I am not suggesting here to get out of Russia’s own backyard. I am only saying, Let’s get real! Just one example will hopefully suffice here. The West has paid billions of dollars for an oil pipeline out of Azerbaijan, to lessen its dependence on Russian oil. In the meantime, President Ilham Aliyev’s much-beloved daughter Leila has recently (written in 2006) married an Azeri/Russian businessman/songwriter Emin Arasovich Agalarov, to live happily ever after… in Moscow, where the climate is much healthier than in Baku, and where her Dad also has a place of his own, both literally and figuratively speaking… (Current update: Recently, in September 2011, Aliyev’s younger daughter Arzu married another important Russian citizen and resident of Moscow, of mixed Azeri/Russian parentage, Samed Aydynovich Gurbanov. The couple has several residences, but their main residence is in Moscow.)
The Western Hemisphere. On the other hand, America’s own backyard has become so badly neglected that this has emboldened the Russians to invade it with impunity. These days America is in such a bad shape all the way south of the border that the consequences of her blindness, caused by a stubborn ideological preoccupation with ‘other things,’ constitutes, in my judgment, one of the worst long-term nightmares, a major setback for global security, and a clear and present danger (actually, one of several!) to American national security…
…To be continued…
Global Financial, And Other Insecurities:
Soon after President Bush took his famous look into Mr. Putin’s soul, the Russian President paid a visit to the Old Country, where, during a press conference, he complained, with mock indignation, that Europe must stop paying for Russian oil in U.S. currency, and switch to Euros. His devious comment did not result in an immediate fall of the petrodollar, but, in my judgment, ushered in a new era of dangerous instability for the world’s staple currency. Considering the huge deficits America has been running and accumulating during the last few years, shored up, to a large extent, by the power of the petrodollar, this country may be soon, if not already, finding herself at the mercy of some rather unsympathetic strangers--- with a trillion-dollar-plus (today, it may be as high as three trillion, and, I suspect, tomorrow it will be four) claim against her. Even if the Europeans keep coming to the U.S. dollar’s rescue again and again, to forestall a world financial crisis, America and the West are still facing the problem of Global Financial Insecurity, in which the Russians are fairly successfully playing the mischief-makers, recently suggesting, for instance, that the petroleum and gas pricings might well switch to the Russian Ruble, or the Chinese Yuan, or both.
Russia’s position on her WTO entry is also unquestionably duplicitous. A strong argument is being made in Moscow that Russia is much better off outside the WTO with all its restrictions, whereas her advantages can always be obtained from separate bilateral or multilateral agreements, which Russia can now negotiate from a position of strength. It is therefore a big mistake for Washington to see its consent to Russia’s WTO entry as a humongous favor, on America’s part, that the Russians somehow have to deserve. In reality it would be to Washington’s advantage to have the Russians covered by the WTO agreement, rather than allowing them to play the role of spoilers, with relative impunity, thus contributing to global instability in the crucial area of international trade. As a result of Washington’s probably deliberate misreading of Moscow’s intentions, it is giving Russia an excuse to stay out of the WTO, and an advantageous “victim status,” into the bargain. (2011 update on this: I understand that the seemingly perennial impasse on the issue of Russia’s acceptance into the WTO has moved a few inches, but there are a few hurdles still left: one is the reluctance of the U.S. Senate to see Russia in the WTO, and another one is the strong possibility of non-ratification by the Russian Duma, if all other hurdles fail to stop the process. I somehow bet on this matter remaining unresolved at the end of 2012, and even farther than that, by the end of this decade.)
Prerequisites of Global Security:
Repeating the last pronouncement of my Cat Allegory, “Global Security requires that we understand the tiger inside us, and do not misunderstand him inside others.” Here outlined, are the two key prerequisites of the condition we call Global Security.
Teipse nosce. Does America know who she is and what she is doing? What is her national interest if she still has one? Let us take a simple question: Why did America invade Iraq?-- Was it faulty intelligence? Saddam being an obnoxious thug? To spread democracy? To help Israel? Perhaps to build a permanent military base in the Middle East? To pump their oil? To create a puppet government? I have recently heard Dr. Michael Evans, on Chris Matthews’ Hardball, on MSNBC. (Remember that this was written in 2006!) He claims to represent 40 million Evangelical Christians in this country. He is not bothered by the failure to find WMD in Iraq or to tie Saddam to Bin Laden. In his own words, he does not “give a bleep about Iraqi Democracy.” He is in Iraq to stay, to build military bases, and to project American power across the Middle East for the direct benefit of Israel… So, please, will the real reason of America’s Iraq adventure stand up! Until it does, America’s basic competence to address the subject of Global Security will be severely impaired.
Understanding others. Several years ago, on the McLaughlin Group, Mort Zuckerman, the well-known media mogul (US News & World Report being among his more conspicuous assets), and a political pundit, made a comment which made me jump up and cry out in helpless frustration. He confidently declared that Mr. Khodorkovsky, Russia’s “Oil Czar” at the time, was by far more powerful in Russia than… President Putin. A billionaire vs. some fellow living on a measly salary? No contest!!!
There is a profound Russian poem, by Alexander Sergeevich Pushkin, which must be memorized by anyone who ever opens his mouth to talk about Russia:
All is mine, said the Gold. All is mine, said the Sword.
I’ll buy all, said the Gold. I’ll take all, said the Sword.
It is probably hard to grasp for a foreigner that in Russia money does not buy power, but power rules over money. Today Mr. Putin is the most influential world leader, according to the international media consensus, and Mr. Khodorkovsky is serving a lengthy sentence in a remote Siberian penal colony. I could have told you this ending without having to watch the whole movie, because I know Russia. Mr. Zuckerman was terribly wrong, yet it was his misdiagnosis which was accepted without a challenge. With such glaring ignorance on the march, there is no hope to find a key to Global Security. We cannot solve a riddle when its language is so totally foreign to us.Its Practicality.
The two prerequisites above: teipse nosce and understand others, must not be taken as a light banter on my part. They go to the heart of the matter. America has no power to force the world into a good behavior. The biggest fellow in the class, in order to be liked, must show some real respect to the others, otherwise, he will be called a bully, and by the law known as the Balance of Power, they will all gang up on him whether he is right or wrong. To avoid the image of a bully, they need to be shown some humility! Humility is the sugar coating on the bitter pill of America’s strength, if America wants the world to swallow it. Arrogance is the self-defense of the weak, it is unbecoming a great nation…
“...Humility, arrogance? Give us a break! What about the real issues: arms control, non-proliferation, etc.?”
…Political science is notorious for making large marble pedestals for monuments made of dust…
Global security is not some general theory suspended in a vacuum. It is a game, where the rules are vague and cannot be set by a single player. In the absence of clear rules, the importance of each individual player becomes the main criterion. Therefore, I stand by my two principal prerequisites. And first, before anything else, America must take a long hard look at herself.
Next, she must look around, assessing the real strengths and the real weaknesses of the others. I suggest to start with a radical reexamination of Mr. Putin’s Russia. Here is certainly number one concern, not the man, but the whole rejuvenated, reinvigorated nation. You want arms control? Say “Russia”! Non-proliferation? Say “Russia”!
China. America has a good point, being apprehensive about China. But China has some serious limitations and natural weaknesses. What makes China truly formidable is her close alliance with Russia, an unbeatable combination. As you see, the key, again, is Russia!
Terrorism. This is a disaster. America has not exactly created the monster, but she has built it up. To fight terrorism, she must first deflate it. She should be fighting specific enemies, not a formless specter. Terrorism, like crime, is invincible, unless this term is put into a proper perspective.
The Middle East. If America really wishes to help her friend Israel, she must insert herself into the picture, but only as an honest broker. Being “a city on a hill, the eyes of the world upon us,” let her not abandon that high ground. After all, her friends will be better served with her as a referee than as a player on their side.
As for the conflict itself, I am skeptical about “a permanent solution.” When vital interests of the opposing parties are clashing, we can either try to downgrade one or both of them to non-vital, which I do not see in the cards, or seek a remission, trying to prolong it for as long as possible, until, hopefully, the high tide of the parties’ mutual hatred, causing their incompatibility, subsides to a treatable level… Sadly, the current ongoing tragedy in Lebanon (written in 2006!) has sent the Middle East “Peace Process” back to the Stone Age, while raising serious concern about the future of Israel itself…
North Korea. Doesn’t America have any experts at all?! Can someone, at last, tell the truth to the public and to her misguided politicians: Forget China, it’s Russia, stupid! A million North Koreans are now financing the rogue state’s regime by serving as migrant workers in Russia’s Far East. If anybody has a say there, it is Mr. Putin: he and Mr. Kim have by now looked into each other’s soul so many times, it’s probably time to send Mr. Kim’s special train to a shop for major maintenance. The bottom line: The only thing America can do about North Korea, unless she doesn’t want to do anything, is to make Russia responsible for her client: the Russians will accept this challenge, and many other challenges too as long as America is ready to restore to them the clout of a global power she had rushed to take away from them a generation ago, without a good cause.
Iran. Once again, it’s Russia, stupid! With the Russians firmly behind them, Teheran relishes standing up to the American Colossus. However, Persia is very different from North Korea. It possesses a great power syndrome. It means, the Iranians are not exactly happy with putting all their eggs in one basket. They are eager to play both sides. Besides, they owe America some serious gratitude for having bumped off their enemy number 1, Saddam, and destroyed the Sunni power in Iraq. Now America has a terrific opportunity here to undo some damage from the fall of the Shah, if she is smart and liberates herself from her ideological jail, to breathe again the free air of American interest. The bottom line here is that the lingering problems of Iran’s nuclear program and its general animosity toward the United States have a chance of being somewhat alleviated (but they will hardly go away), through a direct and reasonably respectful communication between America and Iran, as otherwise, it will be all up to Russia.
Old Europe --- New Europe. America needs to be realistic about Europe. Her old friends may not seem too happy with her these days, but they have common blood running in their social veins, and even these angry days blood is still thicker than water. These are not the coolest of days, so, let us not judge an old family by the bitterness of its latest quarrel, nor a new friendship by the sweetness of our victory over a former suitor. Squeezed between “Old Europe” and the Russian Colossus, Eastern Europe will surely have to make certain neighborly adjustments, in the long run, leaving America eventually in the role of an outsider… I would not count too much on those ‘forward bases’ either. The Poles and the Czechs are yet to learn the exact meaning of Zero Option, especially now that some top Russian Generals are publicly threatening to turn their lovely landscapes into a desert…
Post-Soviet Space. One of the most unfortunate of recent American illusions… Having become at odds with the concept of her own interest, America is blissfully ignoring the reality of Russia’s vital interest. I am not suggesting here to get out of Russia’s own backyard. I am only saying, Let’s get real! Just one example will hopefully suffice here. The West has paid billions of dollars for an oil pipeline out of Azerbaijan, to lessen its dependence on Russian oil. In the meantime, President Ilham Aliyev’s much-beloved daughter Leila has recently (written in 2006) married an Azeri/Russian businessman/songwriter Emin Arasovich Agalarov, to live happily ever after… in Moscow, where the climate is much healthier than in Baku, and where her Dad also has a place of his own, both literally and figuratively speaking… (Current update: Recently, in September 2011, Aliyev’s younger daughter Arzu married another important Russian citizen and resident of Moscow, of mixed Azeri/Russian parentage, Samed Aydynovich Gurbanov. The couple has several residences, but their main residence is in Moscow.)
The Western Hemisphere. On the other hand, America’s own backyard has become so badly neglected that this has emboldened the Russians to invade it with impunity. These days America is in such a bad shape all the way south of the border that the consequences of her blindness, caused by a stubborn ideological preoccupation with ‘other things,’ constitutes, in my judgment, one of the worst long-term nightmares, a major setback for global security, and a clear and present danger (actually, one of several!) to American national security…
…To be continued…
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