Do not expect me, with a straight face, to discuss the intelligence value of the by now notorious WikiLeaks revelations. Honestly, I think that there isn’t any. At least, not to the intelligence communities of the world’s reasonably advanced nations, and, consequently, not to their employers. In fact, every foreign and security policy professional knows ipso facto much more than anything WikiLeaks has to offer. As I have checked on the Internet, the highest classification level of the most sensitive document released in this recent “dump” does not rise to the level of being treated seriously by the intelligence people anywhere on this planet.
The only value which this “9/11 of world diplomacy” (in the rather overly-dramatic expression of the Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini) may possess is its possible effect on the public at large, particularly, when the ore from this “dump” will be processed into the nuggets of propaganda unleashed by all interested sides in accordance with their specific tastes and objectives. But even then, after its propagandistic regurgitation, most sober members of the public will be likely to take this information with a big grain of salt, and the only ones accepting it at its face value will be all those who have long been convinced anyway, and do not really need to be convinced all over again.
Furthermore, I have no doubt that this information will do nothing to set Iran against its Arab “detractors,” or the North Koreans against China, et cetera.
The most unpleasant fallout from these recent revelations, however, will be felt not in terms of any concrete “facts,” most of which are terribly untrustworthy anyway, but in terms of the unfortunate general climate of anti-Americanism around the world. The main weapon here is not contained in the accusations themselves, but in the atrocious ridicule, to which American diplomacy has been subjected. What is the worst thing in it, is not that it would surprise anybody, but that it would not surprise anybody, reinforcing a stereotype which had been set long before Sunday November 28, 2010.
“To be with a woman (who is not your wife) is French. To be caught is American.” This one-liner from the comedy film Once Upon a Crime elicits a laugh from the audiences, by virtue of them recognizing its stereotypical comical treatment of an American in Europe. Unfortunately, the latest WikiFarce does not come from a film script. It carries an aura of legitimacy, especially after some very senior American politicians have gone on record selectively quoting from it (most significantly, regarding Iran and the Arab world), and thus by giving legitimacy to a part, have implicitly given it to the whole.
So, why shouldn’t they have one more laugh at our expense? one may ask. Regrettably, this kind of ridicule is not a laughing matter. It will surely translate into negative public opinion and into negative political votes of erstwhile staunch American allies around the world. This is where I see the greatest damage done by this WikiLeaks scandal to the American national interest, and not only in the way how it was unleashed, but also in the way how it was reacted to by the American Government, the political elite, and the national media.
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
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