2084

(I wrote this entry in 2007, and I have no intention of changing anything in it. The subsequent events of the Arab Spring do not amount to anything like a game changer, in my view. After the present turbulence subsides, and it will somehow subside, none of the longterm trends touched upon in this entry should be significantly affected in any way.)

What will the world look like in 2084? Will it be a better world, or are we going down the slope from now on? Most probably neither. The world in the time ahead of us may not be very much different from what we have today. In many aspects, we may say, nothing noteworthy is going to happen, to inaugurate a dramatic global change, one way or another.

America and Russia will obviously still be at odds, but I do not think that the stability of official bipolarity will be reinstated in those clear cold war terms which used to be so wide off the mark in their ideological statement, but so adequately reflecting the cold but clear factual reality of the two superpowers confronting each other. No such clarity for the new world, I suspect.

In fact, the fictitious construct of multipolarity will certainly remain the order of the day. America, Russia, China, the EU, and several other, more questionable centers of power will be loudly acclaimed as such, but the truth of the matter will be that all these centers can be safely reduced in number to two, where America will be one, in her proudly uncomprehending isolation, while the rest will form the antithesis to the United States, with Russia playing a key role in holding that uneasy alliance together.

The number of nuclear-powered nations will grow to twenty or thirty at least, as homegrown nuclear energy and the possession of nuclear weapons will be universally considered the status symbol, rather than a stigma of non-proliferation gone wrong.

The former Republics of the USSR will either toe the Russian line or conduct Russia-friendly policies. The reconstitution of the Soviet Union will not take place, and they will probably all retain their current status of independent states, thus giving Russia a plethora of votes at the United Nations. Not exactly a spectacular achievement, in terms of Russia’s geographical grandeur, if we are merely looking at the map of the world, but pragmatically, a far greater political gain than the three votes that Stalin managed to squeeze out of the UN in 1945.

The Russian populations in the Baltic Republics, the only three members of the EU from the former USSR to be granted that distinction in the twenty-first century, will all find their voices when it really counts, and will start proving themselves useful to Russia well before 2084. (Not that the other EU members may have a particularly anti-Russian inclination, far from it, but, in so far as some small but essential details are concerned, they are going to make a critical difference.)

All centers of power in Asia will be at odds with each other, allowing Russia to play the role of the benign broker, always reminding the conflicting parties about their common boogieman, the United States.

The Moslem world will be in close alliance with Russia. The Russians will never insist on becoming a full member of the International Islamic Conference, but will always be there in their special status, under the by now familiar formula “all of them plus Russia,” which cuts the pie in half, like no full membership can ever accomplish for them.

The African nations will never be able to make it into the exclusive club of the rich, and that must permanently keep them in the Russian camp: a big gain for Russia, if we consider the levels of Africa’s natural resources.

The nations of Central and South America will further speed up their divorce from the United States, while seeking Russian help in that endeavor. This is not that much of a prediction, of course, considering that this is already happening right now, but the predictive part for me is to assert that the current trend of alienation from the US will be accelerating.

As far as America is concerned, wasn’t it America’s and Israel’s own Daniel Pipes, who said a full decade ago that America today has only two steady friends, namely, Israel and Taiwan. I would not want to argue with Mr. Pipes on that account, except to say that, by the year 2084, Taiwan will be long reunited with her big Chinese family, to live happily ever after. (Once we are on the subject of reunification, the same thing is in the cards for the eager and anxious Koreans.)

Which leaves us with the question of the last bastion of American international friendship, namely, Israel. I have said it before and I am saying it again, that one-third of Israel being “Russian” does not bode well for that solid and long-term Israeli-American friendship, Daniel Pipes was talking about. But, even without this question coming to a head in the next decade or so, the fate of the State of Israel is already hanging in the balance. America’s activist Jews have clearly overplayed their hand, on behalf of Israel, making the life of the Israeli Jews virtually untenable. I suspect that very soon a noticeable trickle of Jewish emigration from Israel, in search of a safer life, will be turning into a flood, more or less, leaving behind a shrinking bunch of Zionist zealots, who won’t be able to sustain their life in Israel on their own, plus the traditional group of ultra-religious Jews praying by the Wailing Wall, none of whom had recognized the State of Israel anyway, and none of whom had previously had any trouble peacefully coexisting with the Palestinian Arabs.

All of which must have exposed my view by now, that, unlike twenty years ago, I would not bet any money or anything on the continued good health and prosperity of the Zionist State of Israel too much deeper into this century, and definitely not beyond its 2048 centenary.

There are a lot more things to talk about in this entry, when I revisit it on my next round, but for right now this will have to suffice.